Coase-Sandor Institute for Law & Economics Research Paper Series
Publication Date
2024
Publication Title
Coase-Sandor Working Paper Series in Law and Economics
Abstract
The consequences of fertility decline flow primarily from reduction in the number of surviving children, i.e., both births and survival, not simply from reductions in births. Therefore, neoclassical economic theories that attempt to explain fertility decline (e.g., quantity-quality models) hinge on preferences for surviving children, not births per se. This paper provides a new measure of surviving children. Effective fertility rate (EFR) is the product of the current fertility rate and the projected probability that a child survives until some age A. This age A could be between 15-49 for a measure (EFRR) that tracks reproductive potential, or 15-65 for one (EFRL) that tracks income and taxes paid. While EFRR can be approximated by existing demographic concepts such as the net reproductive rate or the ratio of total fertility rate (TFR) to the replacement fertility level, EFRL is poorly approximated by existing concepts.
We use three data sets to shed light on EFR across time and geography. First, we use data from 165 countries between 1950-2019 to show that one-third of the global decline in TFR during this period did not change EFRL, suggesting that a substantial portion of fertility decline merely compensated for higher survival rates. Focusing on the change in EFRL, at least 40% of variation cannot be explained by economic factors such as income, prices, education levels, structural transformation, an urbanization, leaving room for explanations like cultural change. Second, using historical demographic data on European countries since 1750, we find that there was dramatic fluctuation in EFRL in Europe around each of the World Wars, a phenomenon that is distinct from the demographic transition. However, prior to that fluctuation, EFRs were remarkably constant, even as European countries were undergoing demographic transitions. Indeed, even when EFRs fell below 2 after 1975, we find that EFRs remained stable rather than continuing to decline. Third, data from the US since 1800 reveal that, despite great differences in mortality rates, Black and White populations have remarkably similar numbers of surviving children over time.
Recommended Citation
Malani, Anup and Jacob, Ari, "A New Measure of Surviving Children that Sheds Light on Long-term Trends in Fertility" (2024). Coase-Sandor Institute for Law & Economics Research Paper Series. .
https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/law_and_economics/1066
